nasdaq down about 5.5 points. s&p 500 gave up 2.5 points. we'll see you tomorrow. thank you for watching. i hope you will follow me on twitter. stay with cnbc. you will want to hear "fast money." it begins right now. will congress really let us go over? >> i actually think we are going to get a resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think it is going to come after we go over. >> we could maybe see the beginnings of the contour of an eventual agreement. i don't see how it comes before december 31. >> it doesn't sound like the sides are closer. >> it is not a plan to say we are going to magically reduce our increased revenue through loop hole closures and deduction caps. we don't know who pays or what we are talking about in terms of

actual legislation to increase revenue. >> and the market is responding. maybe it is best to forget it and focus on stock picking. >> two-week low this morning and then huge 2.36 million block share trades come in. >> "fast money" right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. first china conundrum. is the chinese recovery in recovery mode? a top strategist is digging through the data. hedgefund head winds are supposed to be some of the smartest on the street but 2012 has not been kind. find out if december will bring rebound or redempson. commodities collapse. breaking down the slide in gold

today. first we have to get straight to our top story and that is apple down by 1.75%. could apple's problem be that its growth has, in fact, peaked. well respected strategist out with a note highlighting the multiple which has been in steady decline since 2009. the peak marked by the release of the iphone 3 gs and earnings growth is what the stock needs to go higher. so do you buy that perhaps margins have, in fact, peaked here and that the best is over for apple? >> i have a mic problemb now. if you look at wear google and microsoft have been on the margins this has been a place for the stocks. >> that is a great point. >> magic of live television. >> he strolled in. >> the price action is skimming. you can say what you want about

the fundamentals and what have you but i think the price is trying to tell you something. trade it down to the may 20th low. it overshot a little bit down to 505. we had this nice rally. i think it overshot in terms of where i thought it was going to go. i think it is doing exactly what it is supposed to be doing. >> i would argue and i think steve will also argue it is not just technicals but also fundamentals. earnings are slowing. >> this is a key. if you look at multiple compressions this doesn't hold for all stocks. if you show me a company where the top line is slowing. that doesn't hold all the time. for a stock like this it is widely held and most likely going to happen that way. >> that chart is something. if somebody put that chart in front of you and didn't tell you what it was you would not be buying it. you could say that rally is something to be sold. put a chart in front when you

don't know what it is. apple has a great name but when you look at the chart it is a different story. >> he is making the comparison to microsoft as well as google. on microsoft the price to earnings decline has been on decline since the tech bubble. microsoft has not seen that resurgence even though the base is very large. on google the share of search has been steady a mid 60% or so. and as this has peaked so has the p.e. sounds familiar. >> and i have said it before. when products become ubiquitous, a lot of people love the samsung phones more than the apple phones. other people make tablets just as reasonable as what apple has. when a company loses its cool factor what are you left with. please don't send the hate mails but you have to look at it and be rational. it is a consumer products

company and if they lose the cool factor you have to examine the stock price. >> what those guys didn't have is aged growth. it got a long way to go. the iphone 5 a wasn't noticebly different from a hardware perspective. >> out of breath. have you been running? >> traffic in times square. >> it is the holiday season. >> it is challenging time. >> he makes it on time. >> he makes it but he is here. they have to expand geographically and come out with new product categories or have significant upgrades to the phones which could include things like finger prints and eye ball scanning and serious improvements to voice recognition technology. >> research is fairly efficient. the catalysts are there.

the big thing that you look at is the quantitative setup of the chart. if it is breaking down valuation is not a catalyst. the further you go on and onigate valuation being your catalyst the more wrong you could be. >> going back into early 70s when i saw international flavors and fragrances all had cool factors and it didn't matter. >> in terms of the technical break down below 50 as well as 200-day moving archlg. the 50-day may be moving lower and in danger of crossing the 200 which would be the death cross. creepy. your thoughts on apple? >> i was not that enthusiastic about apple. we had a pullback and i thought it was due to a technical bounce. i think the options market kind of agrees. the most active option was the weekly 575 put which expires this coming friday.

bearish that the stock will be down. the bulls taking over wall street in 201 as more and more release their forecast. should you buy for the long run? let's bring in senior columnist. it's always good to see you. it is amazing that they can put pen to paper and come up with forecasts given the uncertainty on the fiscal cliff but yet they do and they are bullish. >> they are bullish. i think in the typical mode of bullishness of up 10% at least in terms of what we know now. i don't think any of these folks relish the idea of gibbing you a year ahead target. i think this is the game we play. what i think will be surprising to anybody if you didn't read news this is a very normal year. for all the noise the market has kind of done as advertised which

is shocking. i think people give themselves a pass to say i am going to tell you what my models are going to project into next year based on earnings valuation and the rest. >> in this environment we are boot about the to embark upon it because i don't think the cliff is a solution or no solution or a binary in that regard. what is the right multiple in the world that we are about to embark on with the europe that is probably a five to ten year recession. i think the u.s. is at best slogging through things here. i would make an argument that maybe the right multiple is 12 or so. if you throw in earnings of 95 to 100 you have an s&p that is significantly lower. >> rallies during the last phase of the market have peaked out around 14 times earnings. it is up from here in terms of a forward multiple. i don't see why we have to start applying a discount to what we

have been seeing in terms of peak multiples given what we have been through. do you think that the uncertainty has peaked or is ahead of us? the maximum uncertainty. >> i would make the argument it is potentially forward but i think a lot of people would disagree. >> markets don't just pick a multiple like fisher price. the low multiple in the 1970s when you had slow growth and rising inflation was seven times earnings. if you google back to what you said which is you have to analysts, what are they telling me at this point? at the beginning of the year they said growth is back. now what is it? >> i don't think dollar is a definable catalyst. i think people are reluctant to get ahead of a demonstrated decline in earnings. they are never going to be the ones as a group to say we have seen a peak in absolute dollar level of earnings. that is the thing i think would

be the obvious negative catalyst the market is not priced for an outright decline in earnings. if the consensus is somewhere in the ballpark for next year we are not going to say the market should be cheap. >> if you get the multiple wrong that is one way to be wrong. and you look at the fourth quarter there has been 78 companies out of 107 that have issued guidance. that is 74% of companies. that is a lot of companies. it is the most since 2006. is there anybody who has a really low earnings number next year? >> people have lower than this year for sure. i don't know that it is definitely not the consensus at the moment. i think we are overstating the degree of bullishness. i feel like it is the plug factor. it is all pointing towards something like a 10%. you have a couple of targets on the s&p already. which seems like a little bit of an upside surprise. there are also measures that say if you look at the asset

allocation it is basically pointing you towards a contrarien position. so who knows. >> always good to see you. yahoo finance. >> he was basically arguing that people have priced in a lot of bad news. if you look at equities as an asset class and allocation it is probably 20% below the historical waiting. this is their big call. at a year when you are so under weight you always had a huge rally. >> full disclosure that guy believes that the mayan prophecies will come true. >> are you half mayan? >> that is my good side. >> you laugh about it now. december 22 when there is a test pattern on the screen we can talk. >> we will have more on the west coast wrap. raising the red flag on the

commodity trade. traders make the call, much more fast straight ahead.

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shares of netflix getting a huge pop after announcing a premium with walt disney. >> securing the streaming rights to disney movies is a big deal for netflix. it is the first time the streaming video service has secured the rights beating out hbo, show time and stars. this gives a strong hold in

kids' content and will help add domestic streaming subscribers and faces growing competition from amazon streaming service. how much is netflix paying? sources tell me disney is definitely going to get more money from netflix than the starz deal. there is no official number on how much netflix is paying and it is complicated by the fact that it is three different deals, new movies in 2013, direct films and disney's catalog. analysts are bullish on the impact for netflix. morgan stanley saying the deal is a key endorsement from disney. could prompt other major studios to follow suit. the real loser here looks like starz. its deal with disney exspires.

this makes starz look worst. now, one thing to keep an eye on is the fact that both disney cfo and netflix's head of content are speaking at the ubs media tomorrow in new york and they will answer questions about the terms of the deal and implications. >> thanks for breaking it down for us. the deal doesn't start until 2014. does netflix hemorrhage subscribers until then. >> 2016. we are sending a stock up on something to take effect in 2016. >> netflix is one of the stocks we talked about. we said on the desk -- >> you said it. >> look at the low. it was literally 74.5. what does it mean?

how is netflix going to pay for this? i'm not certain they have the balance sheet. this is a huge shortage. it is valuation through the roof. it is a tremendous trading stock. if you caught this one i think you are pulling the rip cord tomorrow. >> you can't short a stock that isn't going away tomorrow. that is what gives it a multiple. 30% of the stock is held short. >> i agree with the guys. this thing is a big shortage. there was a level at 80 guys were probably saying this is where i get nervous and break out. the stock broke out. this is a stock guys are gambling on extinction. >> let's move to commodities. gold trading at a one-month low and oil selling off, as well. luckily tonight we have the commodities king himself to break it all down. let's break it down and start with the gold trade here. >> it has been a devastating trade since the start of december.

it looks like last december. it rallied in january but you have a lot of people long on gold. i have been long on gold for nab of time. you had rumors about that with the advent of the change going on in greece that the germans will be allowed to write off greek debt. perhaps you will see selling from the french central bank. sell of gold offsets the losses on the balance sheet. it is december. lot of people taking profits. rather disconcerting to me. >> i think it is disconcerting if you own gold miners. the underlying metal i think it continues on. bank of korea increased their gold reserves to 1.2% of total reserves. you have turkey circumventing the u.s. restrictions on iran by paying for oil with gold.

a lot of people are paying for things with gold because the currencies are not in a place they feel comfortable. if you are a gold long systemic risk central banks are increasing balance sheets to a scary place you stay long gold. >> one of the issues on that today was that the dollar was down and gold is down. if you are like saying currency until the end of time you have to watch what the market is telling you. the market has been trained to buy gold on these pullbacks. last week futures and options contracts showed a 13% bet on gold up. you got a lot of holders putting that to you on the other side. >> i think you have two different people on the trade. i agree with that. because you should see the dollar weakening and gold strengthening. you have guys in the gold market and guys in the dollar market paying the fed. >> and you have the largest holder of the etfs under

pressure. >> when you have one guy who owns 21% that is not normal to be clear. not at all normal. >> let's break down the oil trade. when you read the headlines it says fiscal cliff behind the selloff in oil. >> i think there is also concern that we are finding more and more crude oil on a daily basis. when you look at nat gas running into troubles when you look at coal prices where they are there is real pressure upon crude oil at these levels. crude has a hard time sustaining any strength and the term structures continue to show you it is looking for a storage facility. if you look at the chart as we were talking earlier just taking a look at the chart you would say that rally that we have seen in the past several weeks looks awfully weak. >> and the derivative trade could be consumers. >> i think this is the most

pullish thing for the entire u.s. economy and global economy. get the government out of the way. get these guys out of the way. let prices clear. if you take gas prices down and food prices down this is very bullish for a lot of people. you could look at the other side of this. big cap nike, yum, starbucks. there are big names that look relatively good. >> and back to just the commodities and the impact. iron ore has outperformed the underlying stock prices. if you are looking at a place for next year. you have tech resources, php up 5% to 10% since september. >> if they hold. iron ore prices are choppy and uneven. coming up next the best play for 2013. we are looking beyond america's borders to find top returns for your money.

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hammered. pandora cutting fourth quarter earnings and revenue outlook. down more than 17%. you are pointing out interestingly that off of the back of the netflix deal you saw a rise in pandora, as well. >> people on the street run portfolios. they don't run stocks. when something has high short interest starts moving the oertd way your brain starts to take over and you start to cover something like that. this started to raise higher and then fundamentals. some people bet on zeroes because they think they can go to zero. that is why it is very high short interest. this is closing in on 60% short interest and the valuation pretty. and members of led zeppelin which i know you watch.

>> anything zep i watch. >> i think this stock could go to like a buck. >> when a stock has a move from 720 up to 950 right before this happened in three weeks. >> let's see how many times we can use that word. >> two is a enough. let's talk china. the face of chinese manufacturing picking up for the first time in 13 months. is it a sign the bottom is in? is china your best bet in 2013? joining us is chief china equity strategist at goldman sachs. always great to speak with you. >> those pmi numbers seven-month high. fourth month gain. it is the longest streak in more than a year for the chinese currency and the stock market lowest level since 2009. what is telling the true story? >> well, i think obviously we

are seeing pretty reasewassurin cyclical signs and the market is reacting more. there has been a big divergence in terms of performance. the reason the asian market is not turning so much is because it is less correlated to the global market. and secondly i think it is just not only focusing on structural reform issues more but more bearish on the cyclical outlook. those are probably some of the key differences. we think that tha asia market guys are a little too bearish on the cyclical and reform side. we think that 2013 returns will be a little higher for a versus for h. >> you have introduced with your most recent note at the end of november a reform basket of

stocks. can you walk us through what that means? >> over the past three to five years we think that china has been going through an era where most of the equity's performance has been highly correlated with cyclical factors. if you look at the cycle but going forward we think there is much lower cyclic ality. and we actually think that the new leadership that is just taken over the party leadership in november will take over full leadership in march of next year they need to focus on what hasn't happened which is reforms. we think that there are probably six or seven different categories of economic reforms that need to be focused on and that will have meaningful impact in terms of earnings revisions and we have highlighted a number of sectors that could be potential reform beneficiaries

and we advocate that investors focus on those. >> you have taken a pretty balanced approach. we have seen an extreme reaction in the commodities and cyclical side but even on the consumer side. which side has overreacted here or is it a function of where valuations were? >> well, i think it is a function of where valuations were partially but i think also that maybe what we are seeing is some of the exposure maybe to certain aspects of the economy. for example, if you look at luxury goods which have done very, very well the growth has slowed quite a bit and consumption lags by a number of months or a quarter so we are not seeing so much of a rebound there yet and i think that is what some of the consumption oriented multinationals may be feeling and we have been pushing a theme we think that is the

opportunity. we think that luxury will rebound in 2013 but the magnitude may be less than what we saw. i think those are some of the factors coming through that overall consumption may bounce more but the particular areas that a lot could be a little bit later and a little bit milder in terms of magnitude of rebound. >> great to speak with you. thanks for your time. the chief china equities strategist. you mentioned yum before. it is one of the multinationals she says maybe that is an area that will see rebound. >> yum got hammered because of china slowing. it is an institutional market. so the locals with inside information are selling china. you have a lot of factorers at work here and a step away from yum the big three are china, the shanghai comp, number two, the price of copper has been making lower highs. and then bond yields which is an

explicit signal. i wouldn't be so reckless to say china bottoms. time for pops and drops and movers. pick it up with a drop for wynn. >> they were all getting nailed. this is a stock that has not had a big catalyst. we have not seen a valuation we like here. >> drop for darden. >> if you miss sales your stock gets hammered. it is a big theme. >> drop for gap down 10%. >> their comps the last month weren't great. that is sahuge move for this. that is a monster move for a stock that has been a monster this year. i am inclined to buy at some point tomorrow. another day of selloff. >> drop for diana shipping down 1%. >> got problems in the shipping business. we are building huge new ships that carry 18,000 teus and we are wrecking the ships that carry 5,000 and 6,000.

we are destroying three and four ships and bringing on one. a lot of supply. >> big pop for big lots. >> this after better than expected earnings in the form of a smaller than expected loss which is what the street was looking for and this after a couple of consecutive bad earnings results and also the ceo announced that he will be retiring. the stock does look cheap but i think they have real problems. >> and we get a pop for love. playboy magnet hefnerer is proving love knows no age. they are engaged to be married for the second time. last year harris called off the nuptials after getting cold feet. the rescheduled marriage will take place. >> we are calling this love.

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welcome back. starbucks the day before the big investor conference cht. >> the name traded about 2 1/2 times. the december weekly puts these expire on friday. decline of about 3.5% from the current level. later today big buyers of the regular puts. bearish bets in starbucks. >> can hedgefunds recover in

december after a dismal year. so far global hedge funds are up only 2%. the s&p up 13%. the advantage plus fund managed by john paulson is facing a tough year. the top performer. let's bring in anthony from sky bridge who joins us on the fast line from brazil. it is always great to speak with you. >> hi, melissa. i'm learning portuguese is different from spanish. on the question of hedge fund redemptions we think they are over. the blow up redemptions the people that are worried about taxes going up next year they

seem to have passed, as well. the long exposure has gone down from say plus 50% net long to down about 30. that is primarily because people are worried about the fiscal cliff. we don't think that the outcome is completely negatively priced into the market. that is more or less where we stand on that. i do think that there is a couple of great trends for next year which includes europe with the recovery there as it relates to corporate restructuring and banks selling assets. and we also think that there will be funds like john paulson's recovery fund to do well. >> as we head into the end of the year, is there no chase per performance? is there no pressure on the part of hedge funds to make up for that in the last few weeks of the year? >> there is no question that there is pressure. i think that you saw net long

exposure widen out and get into the 50s but with the rhetoric coming out of washington now if you asked me three weeks ago if i thought a deal was going to get done i would have said yes. it does seem like a chicken fight here towards the end. if a deal does not get done that will have a very negative effect on markets. that is our opinion reflected on a lot of the long short guide. i don't think you are going to see some major pop in hedge fund performance coming into the last three weeks. >> it is tim. i think the pressure comes the year after they have had a bad year and guys like you who allocate the edge funds know that. you will probably be patient with a guy who maybe has a down year but he has to be there when the market turns. brazil that is a place where emerging markets have under performed. and the hunt for yield is another part of the question. we had yields all around the world. shouldn't this be an equity

catalyst where guys have to reach for a more aggressive asset class because bonds just aren't doing it? >> there is no question that brazil will be the leading anchor south american economy. i think we both know there are a couple of risks here. they have very little infrastructure. they are the sixth largest in gdp but are ranked about 14th in infrastructure. they are trying to rebuild this infrastructure right now. heading to the world cup and winter olympics. you have high crime rates, as well. i do think it is going to be a while until you see a more robust brazilian stock market recovery because of these things. i think that is hanging over brazil. and so i'm wary about that personally. i would say of all of the latin american countries this has the most potential. >> great to speak with you. >> great talking to you, as

well. >> joining us from brazil. >> i bet he is speaking fluent portuguese. >> i speak a little portuguese. that is the extent. >> i stand corrected. >> that is ridonculous. >> stating that 30% to 50% net long is normal. hedge funds bought the top in september and got hammered for it. it is now beta and they have to worry about being beta. let's get out to jane wells. >> how retailers are being impacted by the port strike and why none of it matters. i will explain after the break. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders,

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the australian dollar strengthening today versus the u.s. dollar. with more data how can you play the currency. let's bring in amelia. despite the strengthening you are looking to short ausi dollar, why? >> i am looking to short because

of two very important australia data releases that are going to be released. one is q 3 gdp and the next one is tomorrow evening november employment for australia. they did cut rates as you said last night. i think both q 3 gdp and november employment could come in on the down side of expectations and i think ausi dollar is being overbought as it approaches 105. it was trading in the high 1.40 i7s when i left. i am looking to short it. i would intrt at 1.05 the figure. i am looking for a move down to 1.0350. >> good to see you. see you friday for "money in motion." >> we have you covered in the west coast. jane wells joins us from the best coast. >> facebook isn't just for

farmville and spying on your children which is what i use it for. you can use it for free texting. now you don't have to be a facebook member. all you need now is to sign up is a name and a number. you don't have to be on facebook. you get free texting. phone messaging is more prevalent. the three people currently not on facebook will use the free app and migrate to the website. the stock popped today on the news. free texting. how can you not "like" this? >> that's funny. >> i don't tend to text. >> this whole emerging market opportunity only 17% of people in china on a 3 g network. this is massive. >> the question is what happens

to verizon, at&t and sprint if the texting goes to facebook instead of them. >> facebook is going up. these are all story telling stocks. >> what is a text? >> come on. >> obviously dennis doesn't text. >> that is ridonculous. a federal mediator is on his or her way to los angeles. the media tells me the strike is going to continue. home depot tells us it is impacted but using multiple ports to reduce risks. we are hearing that red box was running short on components but no significant impact though it is developing alternatives. and the toy industry tells us sources are being forced to go to air cargo.

the strike is now officially a week old. >> i live in norfolk, virginia. and we want to thank them out in california for going on strike. it has helped our port facility tremendously. we have new cars coming in all the time. stuff is being sent to our port that would have gone to california. thank you so much. >> that is true. >> the world is moving slower. you have more government. good luck with all of that. >> and, of course, norfolk will be happy when the panama canal is deepened and you will have more ships going that way. none of it matters. 17 more days until the world comes to an end according to the miens and i'm sure california will be destroyed first. i figure this could be a good thing. first go ahead and raise my taxes. you can't collect them until april 15 and i will be gone. i'll stop waiting for microsoft

shares to hit $40. it is never going to happen and we can stop worrying about it and the markets will avoid crashing with the inevitable election of president kardashian. >> the policies coming out of that administration may be better than the ones right now. >> that was hash tag smooth on that political rant. >> personal hygiene. lindsay lohan bounce. >> you don't have to worry about personal hygiene. don't shower that morning. what is the difference. >> die smelly? >> you guys have a loincloth around the house? >> i hope guy does practice personal hygiene until the 20th. >> exactly. >> jane, good to see you. jane wells joining us from the west coast. next on fast is the smart phone revolution just getting started?

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welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives.

let's bring in seema mody with a special twitter report. >> when the powerful internet analyst of the 1990s speaks wall street listens and tweets her latest industry report presented today highlighted the rapid growth in mobile adoption and tablet usage. here are a couple of points here. meeker shows that android smart phone adoption is growing six times faster than the iphone. google shares under performing apple. fred tweets while i guess it is appropriate that i am reading mary's deck on my android phone. meeker illustrates that mobile traffic makes up 13% of internet traffic versus 4% back in may of 2010 looking at this trend steve tweets mobile payments will increase. what is the best way to play the

fraud prevention or data security angle? and lora tweets trading the meeker report what is the stock to own? >> all good tweets here. i don't know. it seems like this is stuff that we sort of know already in some way, shape or form. >> it is a different distribution platform. somebody like meeker whether you liked her before or now it is a voice and it creates a debate. and it is a live debate. and that really gets people's attention. >> mary meeker is still around? >> isn't that amazing. >> what is a tweet? >> that is ridonculous. >> that stock, it has been a story for years but hasn't been a great stock story. the point about android phones. >> the apple argument for the top of the show. just an observation. >> just an observation. >> it is. in terms of security companies

not a lot are pure play security companies. they are often times arms of larger tech companies like ibm or dell and like intel now that intel bought mcafee. >> they established a credible way of electronic payment. this is time to buy. >> you haven't mentioned -- >> it is time. if you look at the stock it is bottom. you are talking about a 45 times earnings. it is one of the great ways pay electronically in latin america. coming up next hour on "mad money" jim cramer is going off the charts to see how you should play the holiday shopping season. should you stay away from starbucks or grab a cup before it gets caffeinated again. plus the ceo of citi national

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